Hermès gamble is a losing game. It will soon be over. Or not?

1. Hermès gamble is a losing game. It will soon be over.

2. A week ago, headlines like this started circulating, largely driven by The Business of Fashion.

3. When I wrote a very extensive article last year about Hermès (I recently moved it from paid access to open access, here) — I did a significant research.

4. That’s when I came across a Forbes article from around 2012–2013, saying almost the same thing — people were growing tired of the chase for Birkin and Kelly bags, especially in Asia (one of the brand’s largest markets).

5. More than 13 years later — nothing has changed. The brand continues to grow, and the chase for the bags continues. One could almost stop here to simply note my scepticism toward the inflated drama.

6. However, a real risk for the brand does exist — and today it is closer and more significant than it was 13+ years ago.

7. This risk is tied to a generational shift. A younger audience is more psychologically aware — while the brand’s growth has, in part, relied on playing into human behavioral triggers.

8. The definition of luxury and status is also changing. For younger generations, it is less associated with what sits in a wardrobe. Owning property — and having a wardrobe space at all — matters more.

9. These factors have long been a latent risk, but with each year they are becoming more clearly defined.

10. Hermès is at less danger than many other brands — at least because it has avoided major scandals around labour exploitation or product quality issues. Although recently I did follow a client’s after-sales experience on social media: her Hermès Constance bag developed waves less than a month after purchase, and brand’s response was unexpectadly negative.

11. However, the white spaces that could support further growth are clearly underutilised. Even though the brand emphasises that it is developing all categories for balance.

12. Perfume and Beauty declined by 8% in 2025. I wrote extensively about this category in the article mentioned above, and little has changed since. hashtag#Beauty cannot be sold in the same way as, let’s say, sneakers — it requires a different approach, especially online.

13. The brand has a dusty footwear offering, almost nothing in dressy segment. Notably, the entire spring collection was shown on the runway with boots.

14. I generally appreciate the brand’s RTW offering — it is very well made — but even here there are missed opportunities to broaden the audience. Styling might be a starting point.

15. Or one more example. While everyone was releasing bag charms, Hermès could have revived its own idea of charms, which it produced in the past. An easy way to stimulate interest and introduce an approachable entry-level collector’s piece.

    

16. The brand’s leadership has repeatedly emphasised that they are slow to approach new initiatives. While this is partly justified by a long-term strategy, ignoring opportunities along the way begins to look… overly confident?